Journey to Extremism in Africa: Pathways to Recruitment and Disengagement

Summary

This landmark UNDP study presents the most extensive empirical investigation to date on recruitment to and disengagement from violent extremist groups in sub-Saharan Africa. Based on interviews with 2,196 respondents—including over 1,000 former VE members—across eight countries, the research reaffirms that vulnerability is shaped by geographic isolation, childhood experiences, and limited education. Economic incentives (employment) remain the primary driver of recruitment, while religious factors appear less influential than in the 2017 study (17% vs 40%). A critical finding is the fractured social contract between states and citizens, reflected in widespread distrust of security actors and dissatisfaction with service delivery. The report identifies "tipping points"—with 71% of voluntary recruits citing government action (killing or arrest of family) as the decisive catalyst. Conversely, absence of a trigger reduces recruitment likelihood by 40-50%. Examining pathways away from extremism, the study introduces the "turning point"—unmet expectations (77%) and disillusionment with group actions (68%) and ideology (60%) emerge as key drivers of voluntary disengagement. The report concludes with comprehensive implications, emphasising investment in education, addressing governance deficits, prioritising prevention over security-driven responses, and recalibrating international investments toward cost-effective prevention yielding a 16:1 return.

Keywords

extremism, Africa, pathways, UNDP, radicalization

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